Online Advertised Vacancies Post First Annual Decline in March

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In March 2008, there were 3,733,200 online advertised job vacancies, a 0.6% decline from the March 2007 level, according to The Conference Board Help-Wanted OnLine Data Series, released yesterday. The March 2007 to March 2008 decline is the first over-the-year decline and reflects a slowing in annual growth in 42 states, of which 14 states were negative. In March, there were 2.4 advertised vacancies posted online for every 100 persons in the labor force, down from a high of 2.9 in April 2007. 

“The softening in advertised vacancies evident over the last few months spread to more states in March and, for the first time, annual growth turned negative for the nation as a whole,” says Gad Levanon, economist at The Conference Board. “It would not be surprising to see a third straight month of job losses when employment data are released later this week as well as continued weakness in the months ahead. The weak demand for labor and a soft employment market help explain the significant decline in the Consumer Confidence Index released last week, which dropped to 64.5, its lowest level since 2003.”    

The National-Regional Picture

In March, 2,542,500 of the 3,733,200 unduplicated online advertised vacancies were new ads that did not appear in February, while the remainders are reposted ads from the previous month. In March, the number of total online advertised vacancies declined 5% and new ads dropped 8% from February, reflecting the fact that there were fewer days during the reference period, as well as the continued slowing in the labor market. Year-over-year (March 2007-March 2008) growth rates of total ads fell 0.6% while new ads were up 2%, respectively.

The monthly national decrease in advertised vacancies between February and March 2008 reflected deterioration in ads in all nine census regions. However, the year-over-year growth rates in six of the nine census regions continued to show a gain in labor demand, albeit the growth rate was slower than the previous year. Three exceptions to this were the New England, South Atlantic and Pacific regions which declined by 1%, 4% and 14%, respectively.

State Highlights

The number of advertised vacancies declined from March 2007 to March 2008 in 14 states (up from 12 states in February 2008). Almost all the states (42) experienced a slowing in the year-over-year growth rate. Most of these same states also experienced a slowing in their year-over-year growth rate of employment during the last year. Based on the decline in advertised vacancies, employment growth will likely continue to decline in the months ahead.

States where labor demand continues to be high include Alaska, Nevada and Delaware.  Alaska posted 4.65 online advertised vacancies for every 100 persons in the state labor force, the highest rate in the nation. Alaska has held the number one position for seven months in a row. Nevada (4.38) and Delaware (4.26) were close behind in the number of advertised vacancies when adjusted for the size of the state labor force. Half of the top 10 states with the highest ads rate are west of the Mississippi and in addition to Alaska and Nevada include Arizona (4.17), Colorado (4.04) and Washington (3.73). The other half of the top ten are along the Eastern seaboard.