Rather than a real marketing recession, new research from creativebrief, an interactive database for the marketing services industry, shows the question is far more about how marketing will change, not contract.
The creativebrief team, based in London, has managed agency reviews in all four corners of the globe and across all major marketing sectors and for many different industries. Their goal “is to be the search engine, networking and procurement tool for the marketing industry.”
The latest evidence from the U.S. and various U.K. reports from the IPA, Campaign magazine, Media Week and others all point to shifting sands in spending rather than any downturn.
Martin Sorrell of WPP, has published his latest forecast, wrapped up in his “quadrennial event” theory, which again points to a 3.9% increase in spending in 2008.
Paul Duncanson, M.D. of creativebrief, says: “This is a view creativebrief supports from our research amongst key U.K.-based advertisers (January-March 2008). Year over year few are considering reductions in spend but calling for efficiencies in spend, focusing on measurable delivery. The results are already here to see in the continued boom in the online channel and a 10 percent reduction in forecast TV revenue for May alone.”
As advertisers seek to maximize returns, they turn to review their marketing channel strategies and then their suppliers. creativebrief is beginning to see the reticence and stability of the first quarter 2008 turn to more positive action by companies as they seek advice about where to spend their budgets with most effectively in this tighter economic environment.
“All is not gloom on the broader economic front, and this is why we are not yet seeing massive cuts in marketing spend,” adds Paul Duncanson. “Latest HM Treasury forecasts (industry averaged) still show 2008 GDP growth of 1.8 percent with inflation at 2.7% and growth increasing in 2009 to 1.9 percent whilst inflation reduces further to 2.4 percent. Set this against falling unemployment statistics in the U.K., at least to date and the outlook remains positive."
The key message for the U.S. from this first stage of findings from creativebrief's clients is cautiously encouraging. Perhaps the lessons that are delivered through past experience (for example the recent IPA study based on 880 IPA effectiveness case studies) that reduction in marketing spends in economic downturns is self-defeating has been learned, at least by the more growth-orientated brands.
